But one thing is becoming increasingly clear: whoever wins Pennsylvania will probably win the election.
tagesschau24: Let’s start with a national look. What are the current numbers for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump? Who is ahead?
Jörg Schönenborn: Basically, there is only one serious statement that can be made: Donald Trump has made up ground in recent weeks – and the rest is really very close and razor-thin. Polls in the USA should always be treated with caution at the national level anyway, because in the end 50 states and the capital decide individually.
But the development of Kamala Harris’ poll ratings shows that after Joe Biden’s withdrawal, she initially wins and then remains stable at a high level. While Trump is catching up bit by bit, especially throughout October.
On average, according to FiveThirtyEight – the partner of the broadcaster ABC – Harris has 47.9 percent and Trump 47. But experience from presidential elections in recent years shows that it can easily be three points more or less. In other words, both are possible.
And such a near tie always means a slight advantage for Trump. Because the electoral system favors voters in the more rural, Republican states. So: If Trump comes out on top, then the matter is relatively clear. But even if he is behind Harris in terms of nationwide votes, he could still become president.
“Pennsylvania seems to be the most controversial state”
tagesschau24: The swing states, where the election campaign is particularly intense, are of course the focus. What is the situation there?
Schönenborn: It is a crazy development in the USA. The red states have become redder, the blue states bluer. And this time it is really just a matter of the entire American public looking at seven states. These are the seven states that did not have a clear result on election night last time either.
The blue states, which are considered to be definitely democratic, have a good 220 electoral votes. Trump with the red states, especially in the middle of the country down to Texas, has just under 220. And then it all depends on the seven remaining states.
The ones where the polls are leaning more towards Donald Trump are Arizona and Nevada, as well as Georgia and North Carolina. With these states he would need 270 electoral votes – he would not have quite made it.
And then there are three decisive states in the Midwest, which are also called the “Blue Wall”. Things are looking relatively good for Harris in Wisconsin and Michigan. And then we see that in the end Pennsylvania seems to be the most controversial state this time. If all this happens, then you can say that whoever wins Pennsylvania will also be president in the end.
“Democratic electorate even more female”
tagesschau24: Women seem to play an important role in this election. Why is that, and what can we expect?
Schönenborn: We have a female candidate for the second time. For some voters, that makes no difference at all – for some, it does. Trump has had a very male-dominated electorate since he took office. Even the last time, when he did not become president and did not get the most votes, he still had a clear lead among men.
For women, it was Joe Biden back then. And now we are seeing that the Democratic electorate is becoming even more female. But especially among younger people, there is what Americans call the “gender gap”: There is a split – young women are very much on Kamala Harris’ side.
But young men, often with an immigrant background, are correspondingly more on the Republican side. There are many Hispanics among them, who are often a bit more conservative. So this “woman against man” line-up can give the Democrats a boost in the female camp and a lot of votes. But it’s not necessarily the case that they won’t lose something among the men as a result.
“Dissatisfaction, especially on economic issues”
tagesschau24: Let’s look at the issues that were important in the election campaign. What are they?
Schönenborn: As they always used to say: “It’s the economy, stupid.” I was in the USA last week and noticed how important price increases and the cost of living are for the people I spoke to there. And if we look at a relatively new survey with figures from last week – with the question of whether the country is developing in the right or the wrong direction – then we see: When it comes to the economy, 60 percent say the country is developing in the wrong direction, while when it comes to the cost of living, the figure is 70 percent.
When it comes to foreign policy, it’s a bit more balanced: 56 percent think the country is developing in the wrong direction. Immigration is a strong issue for the Republicans, here it’s 65 percent. The two most negatively rated issues are those that Trump is very clearly campaigning on.
Then there are Harris’s issues. These are primarily domestic issues. The vote there too: overall, things are going in the wrong direction. So dissatisfaction, especially in economic issues, jobs, housing costs, living costs, will very likely help decide this election.
Would Trump accept defeat?
tagesschau24: What seems to be emerging is that if Trump were to lose, things could get really difficult – we remember January 6th. Can we estimate whether the Republicans could cope with a defeat?
Schönenborn: Trump said this week that it was a mistake to leave the White House four years ago. I was at a campaign event with Trump, where I noticed that the slogan “Never surrender” was on posters and T-shirts were being sold with it.
We will definitely have this question. There is also a survey from last week on this, asking: Do you think Harris or Trump will accept the election defeat?
Three quarters believe that Harris will – one quarter does not. And with Trump, it is the other way round. 74 percent believe he will not accept an election defeat. And he also claimed victory on election day four years ago, which he of course did not win.
The question of how the votes are counted and what the results look like is one thing. The question of whether those involved accept it, whether there will be a peaceful transfer of power – there is a new person in the White House in any case – is of course particularly relevant after the events of four years ago.
“The Senate is expected to be Republican”
tagesschau24: This election will also decide on the two parliamentary chambers. The Republicans dominate the House of Representatives, but the Democrats only narrowly in the Senate. Who do you see ahead in the polls?
Schönenborn: In the Senate, the prospects for the Democrats to retain the majority are very, very slim. This is simply a matter of chance as to where senators have withdrawn and where new elections are due. A third of the Senate is always re-elected. Theoretically, there is a chance that the Democrats will retain the majority. But then there would have to be some really unexpected results in their favor. The Senate, it is generally expected, will be Republican.
In the House of Representatives, with over 430 seats, all of which are being newly elected, it is similar to the presidency: a neck-and-neck race. So we can assume that the presidential question is not the only exciting thing to do on Wednesday night.
