Massive air strikes against IS-positions in Syria are increasingly likely. But can succeed so the victory? And the threat of terrorism is really banned in the West? The most important questions and answers about the new strategy from President Obama.
Long as US President Barack Obama had time with its strategy to combat terrorist militia “Islamic State” (IS) left between he even admitted to have no strategy. But now it is increasingly clear how Obama presents the war on IS.
President Obama hopes to be able to fight against IS not alone. Therefore, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has a ten-coalition brought at the NATO summit in Wales last week into the game, consisting of Germany, Great Britain, France, Italy, Denmark, Poland, Canada, Australia and Turkey. And of course the USA. Everyone should do their part to combat the IS, the plan.
On the night of Thursday Obama will unveil his plans for the extension of air strikes on IS-positions in Syria in a speech. So far the United States has taken up the fight with the IS only in Iraq. But the IS is fighting in two countries, as there were no bounds. Will Obama defeat the radicals, he must attack them in their Syrian bastions.
How will Obama stop the IS? Washington, a strategy has been considered with three phases. Phase one was a few weeks ago started with approximately 150 air strikes in Iraq IS positions. Thus the advance of terror militia in northern Iraq could be stopped for the time being. Thereafter, the second phase began in the fight against IS: The Kurdish Peshmerga fighters and the Iraqi army to be better equipped and trained. Should defeat the IS on the ground. United Kingdom about delivering the Kurds heavy machine guns and the German government sends weapons and trainers. In addition, the United States put pressure on the Iraqi government to strengthen the involvement of disaffected Iraqi Sunnis, so that they no longer support the IS. Well apparently stands before the start of the third phase: the fight against IS in Syria.
What air strikes mean to Syria? The United States will probably probably the first thing the positions of the IS in eastern Syria bombing in the town of Rakka. It is effectively the IS-headquarters. Near them probably the two American hostages James Foley and Steven Sotloff were arrested and killed. Then another IS-objectives in the north and east of the country could be bombed. If the IS weakened, the Syrian regime could benefit them and the first thing to recapture lost territories. Dangerous for the U.S. attacks for Syrian civilians might be, if the IS holed up in residential neighborhoods and villages.
If the IS so beaten? The militia has no air defense, with which they could defend themselves against modern American fighter jets and drones. Possible US-bombing it is helpless. The United States could manage to destroy some of the booty from the IS heavy weapons and pick-ups, when the IS it not time disguises. Even IS-leader will be on the hit list of USA. However, the terrorist group has developed a network command, so that killed the leader could be replaced quickly. The experiences from Afghanistan or Yemen show that it is unlikely to succeed to defeat the extremists. The war against the IS could take years. In addition, an important question is unclear: Who should the USA defeat the radicals on the ground in Syria, the Syrian rebel groups or the fighters of Bashar al-Assad?
If the terrorist threat banned in the West so? Not necessarily. To the contrary may even be the case. So far, the IS is a low threat to the West is: The militia is focused on the conquest of parts of Syria and Iraq, in which there is currently a power vacuum. The West has hardly in sight. A threat to the West would mainly go out of possible IS-returnees – Westerners, who joined the group collected and combat experience. If the United States and Europe now increasingly engage in the war, the militia could also envisage increasing Western targets.
Who is winning the war in Syria? In Syria, there is currently a confused civil war, in which no end is in sight. The original non-Islamist and moderate Islamist rebel groups had to give up almost everywhere the fight. For the most extreme groups were able to expand their power, even at the expense of the other rebel groups. They now dominate the north, east and also in parts of the south of Syria. The Syrian regime controls the densely populated center of the country. The war is increasingly becoming an endless confrontation between an authoritarian, brutal, sectarian regime and an even more authoritarian, brutal sectarian terrorist group.
How are the people there? Half the population of the country is on the run. Million people had to flee from the violence of the Syrian regime and now they also have to escape the extremists. In the province of Rakka many Syrians had taken refuge in the first years of the war. Now, many left the province controlled by the radicals to escape their courses lungs. In the neighboring countries of Syria refugee disaster is obvious. Many Syrian refugees there have now give up the hope of being able to return home again soon and dream now of the risky flight to Europe.
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