In recent days, more and more countries have been reporting cases of monkeypox. Bird flu infections have emerged in the US and China. Is the next big epidemic coming after Corona?
Cases of infection with the actually rare monkeypox virus, which originally appeared in Africa, are being detected in more and more countries. The Robert Koch Institute is also sensitizing doctors in this country to draw the conclusion that it is monkeypox if there are smallpox-like skin changes.
Smallpox itself has been considered eradicated since the late 1970s thanks to mass vaccination. However, animal smallpox (such as monkey or cowpox) can also infect humans. Zoonoses are infectious diseases that are transmitted from animals to humans. Corona is one of them, the virus gave us a pandemic with over six million deaths worldwide.
So are there new dangers? After the great plague, are we facing the next plague? “The next giant thing will come, that’s clear,” predicts Philipp Kohlhöfer. He is the author of the book “Pandemics. How viruses are changing the world” (S. Fischer Verlag, 25 euros). “It’s only a matter of time. But it certainly won’t be monkeypox.”
Climate change produces new virus threat
Even after Corona, the risk of a pandemic remains high. Why is that? “We’re to blame for that ourselves,” explains Kohlhöfer. “When we cut down rainforests, we enter worlds that humans may never have entered before. There are also viruses lurking there that we have never had contact with. And if we then turn the cleared area into a pasture, the virus jumps up the cow. And ultimately it can spread to us. After all, we represent a kind of habitat for a virus.”
The number of infectious diseases has already quadrupled over the past 50 years as a result of encroaching into the habitats of wild animals. And that’s not going to get any better in the next 50 years—in fact, it’s likely to get worse, according to a study by researchers at Georgetown University.
Animals meet unknown animals and people
They examined the consequences of global warming for 3,870 mammal species measured by the year 2070. Their finding: at least 10,000 virus species currently rampant among wild animals could become a threat to humans. They have the potential to spread to humans.
Also: The destruction of the animals’ habitats forces them to open up new areas, and this leads to more species mixing. In addition, as climate change progresses, many wild animals will migrate to cooler or higher altitudes to protect themselves from the heat in order to ensure their survival. There they come into contact with species that previously did not exist in their environment. And: There will also be more interactions between humans and animals – the best conditions for viruses to develop new hosts.
4,500 virus jumps likely
The US researchers determined that if the earth’s temperature rises by two degrees, there will be 300,000 first contacts between wild animal species that had not met before. The result: at least 4,500 new virus jumps are possible.
“This work provides further irrefutable evidence that the coming decades will not only get hotter, but sicker,” said Gregory Albery, co-author of the study. Countries in Asia and Africa are said to be particularly affected. However, as Corona has shown, these viruses quickly spread globally.
Study leader Colin Carlson calls for expanding health systems in the most vulnerable areas to be prepared for the risk. Drugs would also need to be developed, but preventive measures such as habitat conservation and the regulation of wildlife trade would also need to be taken.
So Corona will not have been the last major epidemic.
