Kremlin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky believes that Putin has already failed in the war against Ukraine. Deliveries of weapons from the West are finally coming at the right time – only one decisive measure is awaited.
In an interview, the former Russian oligarch and ex-head of the now insolvent Russian oil company Yukos, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, predicted major problems for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Speaking to the BBC, the Kremlin critic said of Putin: “He failed.”
He has already missed his first war goal – the conquest of Kiev and the removal of the Ukrainian government. Should he now also fail in taking the Donbass region, Putin would have to withdraw from Ukraine. And not only that: “Putin’s regime will not survive a defeat,” said Khodorkovsky. Russian history shows that.
Military support from the West was “always too late”
Khodorkovsky believes that fears of Russia using nuclear weapons if Putin does not make the desired progress in Ukraine are unfounded. “I believe that Putin does not have as many powers as many think. A month and a half since the beginning of the war has shown that,” he said. Preventing the use of nuclear weapons is now up to the western states, which must show Putin his limits.
According to Khodorkovsky, military support for Ukraine from abroad “constantly came too late.” Every step the West took “should have been done a month earlier”. But now he has hope: “I have the feeling that the weapons that are now being made available to Ukraine are exactly the weapons that Ukraine can now use. The West has also started to proactively teach the Ukrainian military how to use the new weapons that may not be available yet, but will be.” Khodorkovsky emphasized that this was a “very correct and very important signal” to all warring parties.
Gas embargo: “Better late than never”
Khodorkovsky also said: “Better late than never” about the West now wanting to cut ties with Russian gas supplies. According to the entrepreneur, the step should have been taken ten years ago – but it never happened. “Today the West has to pay for its mistakes,” said Khodorkovsky, because Russia could now put pressure on the NATO countries with its gas supplies.
If Europe in particular succeeds in getting rid of Russian gas quickly, the effect would be that Putin’s war chest would be significantly weakened: “I think if Putin has to divert oil and gas supplies to Asian markets, he will lose more than half his income – that’s half of the federal budget.” It is difficult to say whether and for how long Russia can then continue to wage war. “But I think that this will be a very heavy blow,” Khodorkovsky suspects.
The Kremlin critic was sentenced to imprisonment in 2003 for alleged fraud and tax evasion. The entrepreneur, who was one of the richest men in Russia at the time, had previously announced that he wanted to finance opposition parties. The trial of the Kremlin critic was therefore considered politically motivated. In 2013 he was pardoned by Putin, since then he has lived abroad.
