Jean-Luc Mélenchon eliminated, what future for the rebellious candidate?

Jean-Luc Mélenchon said it was his last presidential election. Mathilde Panot, Adrien Quatennens and others are preparing to take over.

How to maintain the common thread of the story? This is the question that Jean-Luc Mélenchon must ask himself since Sunday 8 p.m. The candidate of rebellious France failed to qualify for the second round of the presidential election… for 400,000 votes.

A cruel disappointment for the rebellious galaxy, given the gap – smaller than in 2017 – separating their candidate from Marine Le Pen, which looks like a small victory. Because this score (22%), is, despite everything, some reasons for celebration. It allows, for example, the “popular pole”, built around the FI, to put on the costume of the only master on board the left. A hegemonic position that the faithful of the tribune will now try to make fruitful … but, perhaps, without him.

If Jean-Luc Mélenchon respects his commitments, this presidential race was his last. The deputy of Bouches-du-Rhône, who has continued to garner votes between his various candidacies, wants to hand over to the younger generation. “Do better, it’s not far,” he told them, concluding his emotional defeat speech. Before retiring completely? Nothing is less sure.

Presidential, legislative, La Boétie…

Unsurprisingly, his lieutenants have reaffirmed since the publication of the results of the first round that he will no longer be a candidate for the highest office. He will be 75 in 2027. “I think he said it quite clearly”, for example replied Adrien Quatennens, number two of LFI, this Monday on franceinfo. “This puts us in a position of responsibility for the future because we cannot so easily do without a political figure like Jean-Luc Mélenchon.”

If Manuel Bompard, his campaign manager, leaves the door open by slipping “you know, anything can happen”, in the columns of Le Monde, we understand above all that doubt exists for the next legislative elections.

The Insoumis, who has made the National Assembly his favorite political playground throughout the past five years, could he go back for a ride? “He will be in the battle alongside us”, replies Manuel Bompard on the BFMTV set, without knowing “exactly what his position will be”. The scenario is not excluded, at all.

A “close” of the now ex-candidate confirms the possibility to Agence France-Presse. “I don’t think it will be in Marseille because it’s far away,” he explains nonetheless. Rumors announce it in Paris? This source replies: “There are beautiful constituencies, especially in the northeast (he came out on top in many offices, editor’s note), but there is a mixture of circumstances to be respected, not to crush too many feet, know where we land…”

In this flood of uncertainties, one perspective seems clearer than the others: the election of Marine Le Pen as president would almost automatically lead to the tribune’s candidacy for the legislative elections, “forced to hold the rank of head of the opposition” after “the collapse of LREM”, indicates this same friend, still to AFP. A short majority for Emmanuel Macron would also be a possible circumstance to run.

And for rebellious France?

If he does not become a deputy again, continues this source, Jean-Luc Mélenchon would take over the presidency of the Institut La Boétie, the Insoumis think tank, in a few months, in order to satisfy his thirst for transmission and intellectual research, as Le Parisien affirmed it on Monday. Could he then play, like Nicolas Sarkozy, on the right, the role of authority figure of his camp?

Beyond these subjects of people, the future of rebellious France is not limited to the future place of the deputy of Bouches-du-Rhône. Several questions are sure to arise after its effective withdrawal: how to organize the rest? How to capitalize on the electoral legacy gleaned by the boss over the years? And, above all, how to organize the succession without falling into the war of the chiefs?

It is with this in mind that the former socialist has tried to bring out new figures in his camp. For example, he entrusted the development of his program to Clémence Guetté, gave the keys to the party to Adrien Quatennens and bequeathed the presidency of the Insoumis group to Mathilde Panot last fall. “The goal is to say ‘you still take it for 30 years, and there are plenty of others behind this new generation'”, rejoiced the interested party in an interview with HuffPost in October.

But six months later, the site remains intact. “This man is not replaceable in the political landscape”, like to remind the possible pretenders to the chair. They could be many. “We will get there sooner or later”, estimated Adrien Quatennens, this Monday, on France Inter. And to add: “The sooner the better”. Bandaging the absence to think about the future.